S4 June 2011 Q4

EdexcelOld spec12 marksIncludes hypothesis testingQuality of Tests

4. A proportion \(p\) of letters sent by a company are incorrectly addressed and if \(p\) is thought to be greater than 0.05 then action is taken.

Using \(\mathrm{H}_0 : p = 0.05\) and \(\mathrm{H}_1 : p \gt 0.05\), a manager from the company takes a random sample of 40 letters and rejects \(\mathrm{H}_0\) if the number of incorrectly addressed letters is more than 3.

(a) Find the size of this test. (2)
(b) Find the probability of a Type II error in the case where \(p\) is in fact 0.10 (2)

Table 1 below gives some values, to 2 decimal places, of the power function of this test.

\(p\)0.0750.1000.1250.1500.1750.2000.225
Power0.35\(s\)0.750.870.940.970.99

Table 1

(c) Write down the value of \(s\). (1)

A visiting consultant uses an alternative system to test the same hypotheses. A sample of 15 letters is taken. If these are all correctly addressed then \(\mathrm{H}_0\) is accepted. If 2 or more are found to have been incorrectly addressed then \(\mathrm{H}_0\) is rejected. If only one is found to be incorrectly addressed then a further random sample of 15 is taken and \(\mathrm{H}_0\) is rejected if 2 or more are found to have been incorrectly addressed in this second sample, otherwise \(\mathrm{H}_0\) is accepted.

(d) Find the size of the test used by the consultant. (3)

Figure 1 shows the graph of the power function of the test used by the consultant.

Figure 1: graph of power against p for the consultant’s test, p from 0.075 to 0.225
Figure 1
(e) On Figure 1 draw the graph of the power function of the manager’s test. (2)
(f) State, giving your reasons, which test you would recommend. (2)